Wednesday, January 21, 2009

Finally Some Relief

Crude oil has finally recovered a bit and is trading at $41 a barrel. Futures point to all three major indices being moderately higher. Apple and many other technology stocks are up after hours following IBM's upbeat report. I expect Apple to have a modest run up into earnings tomorrow. I have a long position in AAPL and will hold into earnings, although Apple has a reputation for conservative guidance, which might have a negative effect on the stock. I would buy more if the stock drops after the earnings release. Here's an interesting correlation that might indicate future price movement of AAPL:

Notice that the Put/Call Options Volume Ratio(shown in blue) moves inversely to the price of the stock (shown in red). After the sharp spike in the Put/Call Volume Ration, the stock consequently fell. Shortly after, the ratio dropped significantly but the price of the stock has not yet followed. Could this suggest that a move up is in the works? Possibly.

Source for the graph: http://www.schaeffersresearch.com/streetools/indicators/equity_volpcratio.aspx

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